NFL player props
Passing, rushing and receiving numbers for the whole week, each one carrying the rate he has actually cleared it at, the fair price with the hold stripped out, and the best number posted.
Tonight's board
Projections →Every row is a two-sided number. The fair price is the market with the hold stripped out; the gap is what the best available number pays over that fair price. Prices come from FantasyDailies and move all day.
The NFL markets we price
Passing Yards
Measured at 174.5 through 299.5, three seasons deep.
Passing Attempts
Volume is the most stable thing a quarterback does.
Rushing Yards
Backs and quarterbacks, 29.5 through 79.5.
Rushing Attempts
Carries survive a bad game. Yards do not.
Receiving Yards
Split by whether the defence is soft or tough on the position.
Receptions
1.5 to 6.5, the most bet prop in football.
How to read the NFL board
Football goes by weeks, so this board is the whole week — Thursday through Monday — not one day. Each row pairs the over and the under on the same number, because a one-sided price tells you nothing. With both sides you can strip the hold out and see what the market actually thinks.
The rate is measured at the posted number
A season average of 62 receiving yards does not tell you how often a man beats 59.5. The hit rate here is counted at the line itself across three seasons, and where the opponent's defence is clearly soft or clearly tough against his position, the split is used instead of the season figure. The sample size sits on every row so you can see what it rests on.
Then the price has to pay
A 61% man at -175 is a losing bet. The gap column is the only thing that decides whether a number is playable, and the best available price is what it is measured against. Build the ones you like into a slip with the prop parlay builder, and check the arbitrage board before you take anything.
Other leagues: MLB props, NBA props, NHL props. New to this? Start with how to bet player props.