powered by FantasyDailies Velvet
×
The boards
NFL Player PropsEvery two-sided number on the weekMLB Player PropsTonight's batters and armsNBA Player PropsPoints, boards, dimes, threesNHL Player PropsShots, points, saves
The tools
The GapWhere the best price beats the fair priceHit RatesHow often he actually goes overProjectionsThe number, not the lineOdds ComparisonConsensus against the best numberFree MoneyBoth sides priced wrong at onceProp Parlay BuilderBuild it, price it, see the holdFree PicksOne number a day, on the house
Read
How To Bet Player PropsThe whole method, start to finishAbout & MethodWhere the numbers come fromTake a Velvet seatOpens every board, every league
Arbitrage · both sides at once

Free Money

Take the best over anyone is posting and the best under anyone is posting. If those two prices together imply less than a hundred percent, the number pays whatever happens.

The ladderThe gap

How this is found

Every price implies a probability. On a healthy two-sided market the over and the under add up to something above 100% — that surplus is the book's fee. But the best over and the best under do not have to come from the same book, and when two books disagree far enough, the two best prices can add up to less than 100%. That is an arbitrage, and it is arithmetic rather than opinion.

Why the board is usually empty

It should be. Prop markets are sharper than they were and these windows close in minutes. An empty board is the honest answer and you will see it most days. What you should not see is a board inventing opportunities to look busy.

Before you act on one

Check that both numbers are the same — an over on 4.5 and an under on 5.5 is a middle, not an arb, and it carries real risk. Check the prices are still live; stale lines are the single most common false positive. And know that books limit accounts that do this often.

The everyday version of this idea is the gap, which does not need two books to disagree, only one to be generous. Shop your number on the ladder first.