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The Gap

Strip the hold out of a two-sided market and you have the price the bet is really worth. Anything a book pays above that is the gap, and it is the only reason to take a number.

NFL boardThe method

What the gap actually is

A book prices both sides of a number so that the two implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. That surplus is the hold, and it is the house's fee. Remove it proportionally and you are left with what the market genuinely believes — the fair price.

Now compare that fair price with the best number anyone on the board is offering. If the best price pays more than fair, the difference is expected value, and over hundreds of bets that difference is the entire game. If it does not, no amount of confidence in the player makes the bet good.

Why the gap is usually small

A 2% gap is a good bet. A 15% gap is usually a stale line about to be pulled, an injury the board has not caught, or a market where one side has almost no liquidity. Treat anything enormous as a question rather than a gift.

Where to go next

Confirm the player behind the number on the tape, check where the line should sit with the projection, then shop it on the ladder. If both sides are wrong at once it will show on the free money board. League boards: NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL.