Hit Rates
Not a season average. The rate he has cleared this exact number, counted across three seasons, with the sample size shown and the defensive split applied where the matchup is clearly one thing.
Why the exact line matters
Averages lie about props. A receiver averaging 62 yards a game can be a 40% man at 59.5 if his distribution is a handful of enormous games propping up a lot of quiet ones. Counting at the posted number is the only way to know, and it is what the tape does.
The defensive split
Where the opponent ranks in the bottom third against that position, the soft-defence rate is used. Where they rank in the top third, the tough-defence rate is used. In the middle, neither split is applied and the season figure stands — forcing a man into a bucket he does not belong in is how a good idea becomes a bad number.
Read the sample size
Every row shows how many games the rate rests on. A 78% rate over 9 games is a coin flip wearing a costume. A 61% rate over 44 games is worth something. When the sample is thin, the price has to be better to compensate.
A rate is not a bet
The rate tells you the probability. The gap tells you whether anyone is paying enough for it. You need both, every time. See also the projection and the full NFL board.